Multiple issues unreferenced November 2010 original research November 2010 Elections Psephology IPAc en icon s i f l d i from Greek psephos , pebble , which the Greeks used as ballots is a branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of election s. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion poll s, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in the United Kingdom in 1952 by historian R. B. McCallum to describe the scientific analysis of past elections. Applications Psephology also has various applications specifically in analysing the results of election returns for current indicators, as opposed to predictive purposes. For instance, the Gallagher Index measures the disproportionality of an election. Notable psephologists Notable psephologists include Australians Antony Green and Malcolm Mackerras who devised the Mackerras Pendulum and Americans Michael Barone, who has published The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972, Nate Silver whose website FiveThirtyEight tracks US voting trends, and David Butler academic David Butler and Robert McKenzie psephologist Robert McKenzie , who co developed the swingometer . See also British Polling Council Electoral Calculus Psepholograph Swing politics Voting List of democracy and elections related topics Further reading William Safire . New Political Dictionary , Random House, New York 1993. External links http www.aceproject.org ACE Project &ndash Comprehensive information resource for Electoral Design and Administration. Includes much comparative data on elections and electoral systems http psephos.adam carr.net Psephos Dr. Adam Carr s Elections Archive http www.idea.int International IDEA &ndash International Organisation providing amongst other things statistical analysis of elections and electoral systems Category Psephology pt Psefologia ru tr Se imbilim ... more details
saved book title Political science subtitle cover image cover color Political science Main article Political science History and philosophy History of political science Political philosophy Subfields of political science Administration government Administration Constitutional law Geopolitics Media studies Nationalism studies Peace and conflict studies Political economy Political engineering Political geography Political history Psephology Security sector reform Category Wikipedia books on political science Political science ... more details
A psepholograph from the words psephology and graph is a graphical representation of political opinion poll results showing electorate by electorate results, rather than reporting polls in percentages of the survey total. The Psepholograph more accurately shows the results of non uniform swings, and translates the results into an electoral effect on a multi party system allowing for several simultaneous trends. The Psepholograph was developed in Australia in 1992 by Matt Balogh, ref http adt.caul.edu.au homesearch find ?recordid 43706&format main ref ref http www.mcnairingenuity.com AboutUs OurPeople tabid 72 Default.aspx ref ref http www.econ.usyd.edu.au staff mattb ref ref http en.scientificcommons.org 36131271 ref and succeeds the Electoral Pendulum ref http www.aph.gov.au library Pubs RP 2007 08 08rp08.htm ref ref http www.crikey.com.au Election 2007 marginals electoral pendulum.html ref , developed by Malcolm Mackerras ref http ftp.adfa.edu.au hass staff mackerras.html ref . It allows political analysts to graphically communicate the complexity of election results to the media and public. References references Category Psephology Category Elections ... more details
Unreferenced stub auto yes date December 2009 PIG is an psephology electoral technique commonly employed in the United Kingdom , consisting of three steps Persuade &mdash in which the organisation concerned convinces the public to support them&mdash usually a political party attempting to solicit vote s. Identify &mdash this consists primarily of canvassing &mdash identifying one s supporters, preferably individually. It may also consist of market segmentation . Get out the vote &mdash commonly known as GOTV, this consists of Election Day United Kingdom polling day activity&mdash calling on identified electors to vote. See also Community politics Electoral software Voter File DEFAULTSORT Pig Elections Category Election campaigning Poli stub ... more details
R. B. McCallum 1898 1973 was a United Kingdom British historian . He was a fellow and later Master of Pembroke College,Oxford, where he taught Modern History and Politics . and was member of J. R. R. Tolkien Tolkien s The Inklings Inklings . McCallum was also the creator of the term psephology statistical analysis of elections . Books Asquith biography, 1936 . Great Lives Series. England and France, 1939 1943 1944 . Public Opinion and the Last Peace 1944 . The British General Election of 1945 1947 . With Alison Readman. The Liberal Party from Earl Grey to Asquith 1963 . Men and Ideas Series. External links http www.mythsoc.org inklings.html Inklings in http www.mythsoc.org The Mythopoeic Society . Accessed February 12, 2008. Persondata Metadata see Wikipedia Persondata . NAME Maccallum, R. B. ALTERNATIVE NAMES SHORT DESCRIPTION DATE OF BIRTH 1898 PLACE OF BIRTH DATE OF DEATH 1973 PLACE OF DEATH DEFAULTSORT Maccallum, R. B. Category British historians Category 1898 births Category 1973 deaths UK historian stub pt R. B. McCallum ... more details
Image Anes logo.jpg right The American National Election Studies is the leading academically run opinion poll national survey of voters in the United States , conducted before and after every presidential election . Though the ANES was formally established by a National Science Foundation grant in 1977, the data are a continuation of studies going back to 1948. The study has been based at the University of Michigan since its origin and, since 2005, has been run in partnership with Stanford University . Its principal investigators for the first four years of the partnership were Arthur Lupia and Jon Krosnick . Its current principal investigators are Vincent Hutchings, Gary Segura, and Simon Jackman. The consistency of the studies, asking the same questions repeatedly over time, makes it very useful for academic research with the result that it is frequently cited in works of political science . Early ANES data were the basis for The American Voter 1960 . Now ANES data are used by numerous scholars, students, and journalists. It is widely considered the gold standard of election studies. The ANES has a long history of innovation. In 2006, it opened the ANES Online Commons, becoming the first large scale academic survey to allow interested scholars and survey professionals to propose questions for future ANES surveys. References Unreferenced date August 2010 Reflist External links http www.electionstudies.org American National Election Studies spacing Social surveys Category Psephology Category Elections in the United States de American National Election Studies ... more details
Quantitative research Psephology Social research Statistics Statistical survey Voodoo poll Elections ... in the United Kingdom Category Evaluation methods Category Psephology Category British media Category ... more details
BLP sources date June 2011 Ken Ritchie born 1946 is a United Kingdom British psephology psephologist . Born in Glasgow , Scotland , he graduated from the University of Edinburgh with a degree in mathematics before spending 18 months teaching in Tanzania . After that he returned to United Kingdom Britain to complete a PhD on the policies and decision making methods of voluntary organisations in Africa . He has held a number of senior positions on developmental charities, including Head of International Service for the United Nations Association UK UK United Nations Association Executive Director of the health care charity Health Link International Deputy Director of the Refugee Council British Refugee Council , Chairperson of the London Friends of Palestine and UK Director of the Intermediate Technology Development Group . He also served on the boards of various organizations including War on Want , Oxfam Oxfam UK , the Council for the Advancement of Arab British Understanding and the Western Sahara Campaign of which he has been Treasurer for the past 20 years . He was the Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society from 1997 until 26 June 2010. ref cite news url http www.nytimes.com 2010 05 08 world europe 08reform.html title Unclear Outcome at Polls Adds Urgency to Issue of Electoral Overhaul in Britain last Lyall first Sarah date 8 May 2010 work The New York Times page 6 accessdate 30 June 2011 ref He has stood for parliament three times as a Labour Party UK Labour candidate, in Beckenham in 1987 and 1992, and in Daventry district Daventry in 1997. In 2006, he became a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts . References Reflist External links http fairvote.org ?page 148 FairVote biography of Ken Ritchie http www.bbc.co.uk election97 candidates 737.htm BBC election candidates guide Persondata Metadata see Wikipedia Persondata . NAME Ritchie, Ken ALTERNATIVE NAMES SHORT DESCRIPTION DATE OF BIRTH 1946 PLACE OF BIRTH DATE OF DEATH PLACE OF DEATH DEFAULTSORT Ritchie, Ken ... more details
Refimprove date November 2010 A sophomore surge is a term used in the political science of the United States Congress that refers to an increase in votes that congressional candidates candidates for the United States House of Representatives House of Representatives usually receive when running for their first re election. The phrase has been adopted in Australia by psephology psephologist Malcolm Mackerras who is well known for his Mackerras Pendulum electoral pendulums . History This phenomenon first started in the 1960s. As of 1998, freshman candidates running for a second term now get eight to ten percent more votes than when they were elected for their first term. Citation needed date November 2010 Over ninety percent of all incumbent House members are reelected. Citation needed date November 2010 United States Senate Senate members also currently benefit from a sophomore surge, though it is to a lesser degree. Citation needed date November 2010 The reason for the sophomore surge is attributed By whom date November 2010 to the fact that congressmen have figured out how to run personal campaigns rather than Political party party campaigns. They make use of their free, or Franking franked , mail frequent home trips radio and television broadcasts and service distribution to their Congressional district districts in order to create a good opinion of themselves, not their party, among their constituents. Citation needed date November 2010 They also promise to clean things up in the Federal government of the United States federal government if they are re elected. Citation needed date November 2010 References Reflist John DiIulio DiIulio, John J., Jr. , and James Q. Wilson . American Government textbook American Government , 1998 Houghton Mifflin Houghton Mifflin Company . Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 97 72562. ISBN 0 395 85763 5. DEFAULTSORT Sophomore Surge Category Political science terms Category Terminology of the United States Congress US poli stub ... more details
in regard to getting and maintaining a paid labour position. See also Cross cutting cleavage Psephology ... references DEFAULTSORT Cleavage Politics Category Elections Category Psephology Category Voting Category ... more details
Infobox Historic building image Allington Castle.jpg caption Allington Castle from across the River Medway name Allington Castle location town Allington, Kent Allington location country England architect client engineer construction start date completion date 1299 date demolished cost structural system style size map type Kent latitude 51.293333 longitude 0.511702 Allington Castle is a stone built moated castle in Allington, Kent Allington , just north of Maidstone , Kent in England . History Allington Castle is a Grade I listed building . ref NHLE num 1239149 desc Allington Castle accessdate 2 July 2011 ref Much of the stonework was laid in an intricate herringbone pattern which is still visible today. It was the birthplace in 1503 of the English lyrical poet Thomas Wyatt poet Sir Thomas Wyatt and in 1521 of his son the rebel leader Thomas Wyatt the younger Thomas Wyatt . The manor house on the site was fortified by Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports Stephen de Pencester Stephen de Penchester in 1281 after a licence to crenellate was issued by Edward I of England Edward I . It was converted to a mansion in 1492 when the Wyatt family acquired the property. Towards the end of the 16th century whilst under the ownership of the Wyatt family the castle was badly damaged by fire, remaining largely derelict until 1905 when it was restored by Sir Martin Conway, 1st Baron Conway of Allington Martin Conway . In 1951 the castle became home to a convent of the Order of Carmelites . It is currently the private residence of the Psephology psephologist Robert Worcester Sir Robert Worcester and Lady Worcester. It is not open to the public. In popular culture The castle has been used for location filming on several occasions As Castle De ath in episode 5, series 4 of the cult TV series The Avengers TV series The Avengers . For exterior scenes for the 1992 TV series Covington Cross . For exterior scenes in the TV series Colditz TV series Colditz . The castle grounds were the location o ... more details
Experimental political science is the use of experiments , which may be natural experiment natural or scientific control controlled , to implement the scientific method in political science . History and usage Since the early years of the discipline, political scientists have expressed ambivalence and skepticism about the possibility of using experiments to draw inferences about political behavior. Nevertheless, experimental research has become a growing area of political science. The publication of experimental research articles in flagship political science journals has risen, especially since the 1980s. Moreover, citation analysis indicates that articles using experimental methods have higher rates of citation. Among the areas that it is used in are Political psychology , including survey methodology , loss aversion , influences on voter turnout , and media influence The effects on outcomes of different voting systems e.g. , Storable Votes Experimental Results storable votes , including the study of tactical voting and Interactions and voting in legislatures and other deliberative assembly deliberative assemblies , including the effects of different voting methods in deliberative assemblies voting methods and control of the agenda meeting agenda . ref name liberalism populism cite book title Liberalism Against Populism first William last Riker authorlink William H. Riker isbn 0 88133 367 0 year 1988 origyear First published in 1982 publisher Waveland Press location Prospect Heights, Illinois, USA ref See also Experimental economics Experimental psychology Psephology Public choice theory Social choice theory Issue voting Notes Reflist References cite journal url http www.apsanet.org imgtest APSRNov06Druckman etal.pdf journal American Political Science Review month November year 2006 first1 James last1 Druckman first2 Donald last2 Green first3 James last3 Kuklinski first4 Arthur last4 Lupia authorlink4 Arthur Lupia title The Growth and Development of Experimental R ... more details
image Floridamap.gif thumb 350px A map of Congressional districts in South Florida, from Psephos Adam Carr s Electoral Archive Psephos Adam Carr s Electoral Archive is an online archive of election statistics, and claims to be the world s largest online resource of such information. Maintained by Dr Adam Carr, of Melbourne , Australia , a historian, former aide to Australian MP Michael Danby and current aide to Senator David Feeney , Psephos includes detailed statistics for presidential and legislative elections from 174 countries, with at least some statistics for every country that has what Carr considers to be genuine national elections. For many countries there are also statistics for state and provincial elections. Psephos is a Ancient Greek Greek word meaning pebble , a reference to the Ancient Greek method of voting by dropping pebbles into urns, and is the root of the word psephology , the study of elections. Carr began accumulating Australian election statistics in the mid 1980s, with the intention of publishing a complete print edition of Australian national elections statistics dating back to 1901. With the advent of the World Wide Web , Carr abandoned this idea and began to place election statistics at his personal website. In 2001 he founded Psephos, and began to include statistics from other countries. He has also included historical statistics, such as figures for all U.S. presidential elections and for British House of Commons elections since 1900. Psephos is more noted, however, for locating less easily accessible statistics and placing them online. These include constituency level figures for Japan ese legislative elections, which are not available in English anywhere else on the internet, and figures from countries as obscure as Andorra , Equatorial Guinea , S o Tom and Pr ncipe and Tuvalu . These figures are obtained from a variety of sources, including government election websites, media websites and political party websites. Increasingly, stat ... more details
The Mackerras Pendulum was devised by the Australian psephology psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two party system two major parties in a Westminster System Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives , which is composed of Single winner voting systems single member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or Instant runoff voting IRV . The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the her majesty s government government , the Official Opposition Australia opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the Swing Australian politics swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Two party preferred percentage Image 2PP counting flowchart.svg right thumb The candidate with the least amount of votes is eliminated and redistributed to the voter s next choice until two candidates are left to gain a two party preferred figure. Image Pollchart tpp event.svg right thumb 250px Two party preferred polling by Newspoll , ACNielsen , Roy Morgan Research Roy Morgan and Galaxy Research Galaxy between the Australian federal election, 2004 2004 and Australian federal election, 2007 2007 federal election . The two party preferred 2PP method of prediction attempts to estimate the flow of second and subsequent preferences from smaller parties in order of their expected elimination during the instant runoff voting process, to establish ultimately which major party the voters will choose Labor or Coalition Liberal National in the Australian context. A Coalition 2PP of 51 would mean a Labor 2PP of 49 and vice versa. Whichever party polls the higher two party preferred percentage at the election usually ... more details
For those of a similar name Anthony Green disambiguation Infobox person name Antony Green image alt caption birth name Antony John Green birth date Birth date and age 1960 3 2 df y birth place England , United Kingdom death date Death date and age YYYY MM DD YYYY MM DD death date then birth date death place nationality Australian other names known for occupation ABC election analyst Antony John Green born 2 March 1960 ref cite web url http nla.gov.au anbd.aut an35346945 title Green, Antony work Libraries Australia accessdate 3 October 2011 ref is an Australia n Psephology psephologist and pundit expert commentator for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation . Early years and background Born in northern England, Green emigrated to Australia with his family in 1964. ref name blog2011 08 20 cite news url http blogs.abc.net.au antonygreen 2011 08 a sad day for the abc.html title A Sad Day for the ABC author Green, Antony work Antony Green s Election Blog date 20 August 2011 accessdate ref He attended James Ruse Agricultural High School in Sydney, graduating in 1977. ref name Number cruncher cite news url http www.smh.com.au federal election number cruncher 20100724 10pvw.html title Number Cruncher work The Sydney Morning Herald accessdate 4 August 2010 date 25 July 2010 ref Green graduated with a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing , and a Bachelor of Economics with honours in politics . ref name ABCgreen He worked initially as a data analyst in the computing industry and for a polling company before joining the ABC in 1989. ref name ABCgreen Career as a psephologist and commentator Green first appeared on the ABC s election night television coverage in the New South Wales state election, 1991 1991 NSW general election , ref name blog2011 08 20 following with the Australian federal election, 1993 federal election in 1993 . ref name ABCgreen cite web url http www.abc.net.au elections sa 2010 guide antony green.htm title Antony Green work 2010 South Australia ... more details
Professor Anthony King born 17 November 1934 is a Canada Canadian born professor of government in the United Kingdom at Essex University , psephology psephologist and commentator. King gained a Bachelor of Arts B.A. in History and Economics at Queen s University , Ontario , before he came to the UK as a Rhodes Scholar in the 1960s, and he initially taught at Magdalen College, Oxford , before transferring to Essex. ref cite web url http www.essex.ac.uk government staff profile.aspx?ID 397 title Academic Staff Professor Anthony King accessdate 8 April 2011 ref Since 1969, he has been Professor of Government at Essex. ref name essex news He regularly appears on election results and their implications. On a monthly basis, he analyses political opinion poll s on voting intentions for The Daily Telegraph . He has also written many books on politics and was co editor of the Britain at the Polls series of essays and, in 2008, The British Constitution . Professor King is co author with David Butler academic David Butler of two Nuffield College election studies those for 1964 and 1966 and author of Britain Says Yes the 1975 Referendum on the Common Market and Running Scared Why America s Politicians Campaign Too Much and Govern Too Little . He is also co author with Ivor Crewe SDP The Birth, Life and Death of the Social Democratic Party UK Social Democratic Party . He has edited The New American Political System , New Labour Triumphs Britain at the Polls 1997 , Britain at the Polls 2001 and Britain at the Polls 2005 . Anthony King is former member of the Committee on Standards in Public Life and the Royal Commission on the Reform of the House of Lords the Wakeham Commission . ref cite web url http www.public standards.gov.uk About Previous members.html title Standards in public life Previous members accessdate 13 October 2010 ref ref cite web url http www.archive.official documents.co.uk document cm45 4534 prelims.pdf title Royal Commission on Reform of the House of Lords A H ... more details
Infobox person name Cornelius O Leary birth date birth date 1927 9 30 df y birth place Limerick , Ireland death date death date and age 2006 9 7 1927 9 30 df y resting place Timoleague Abbey Cemetery, County Cork Cork , Ireland nationality Irish people Irish known for Political historian and political commentator alma mater University College Cork br Nuffield College, Oxford employer Queen s University Belfast Cornelius O Leary 30 September 1927 7 September 2006 was an Irish people Irish historian and political scientist . O Leary was born in Limerick but was raised in Cork city Cork , ref name News cite news url http www.irishnews.com searchlog.asp?reason denied empty&script name pageacc.asp&path info pageacc.asp&tser1 ser&par ben&sid 535482 title Obituary Intellectual who was also willing to banter date 2006 09 18 work Irish News page 20 accessdate 2008 08 21 ref where he attended University College Cork, gaining a British undergraduate degree classification first class honours degree in history and Latin in 1949. ref name Guardian cite news url http www.guardian.co.uk news 2006 oct 12 guardianobituaries.obituaries title Obituary Cornelius O Leary last Crick first Bernard authorlink Bernard Crick date 2006 10 12 work The Guardian page 36 accessdate 2008 08 21 ref He subsequently studied for a PhD at Nuffield College, Oxford as the first student to be supervised by the psephology psephologist David Butler academic David Butler . ref name Times cite news url http www.irishtimes.com newspaper obituaries 2006 0923 1158590926487.html title Cork academic with deep religious belief date 2006 09 23 work The Irish Times page 14 accessdate 2008 08 21 ref While researching his PhD, he worked at a number of secondary school s in London . His thesis was published as The Elimination of Corrupt Practices in British Elections, 1868 1911 Oxford University Press Clarendon Press , 1962 and in the same year he was appointed lecturer at Queen s University Belfast in Northern Ireland . ... more details
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