Hatnote For the film of the same name, see Uncertainty film . Certainty File Blank Fork.png thumb We ... how to proceed. Uncertainty is a term used in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including uncertainty principle physics , philosophy , statistics , economics , finance , insurance , psychology ... quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as Uncertainty The lack ... state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. Measurement of Uncertainty A set ... of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss. Measurement ... v onepage&q&f false preview . br Jean Jacques Laffont 1989 . The Economics of Uncertainty ... PR5 v onepage&q&f false links . br 1980 . Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty , Harvard ... . Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency The State Contingent Approach . Cambridge. http www.cambridge.org ... preview. ISBN 0 521 62244 1 ref Knightian uncertainty . In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit ref Knight, F.H. 1921 Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Boston, MA Hart, Schaffner & Marx Houghton ... between risk and uncertainty Cquote Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct ... that a measurable uncertainty, or risk proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. Cquote You cannot be certain about uncertainty. There are other taxonomies of uncertainties and decisions that include a broader sense of uncertainty and how it should be approached from an ethics perspective ref name embo1 cite journal author Tannert C, Elvers HD, Jandrig B title The ethics of uncertainty. In the light ... 550px A taxonomy of uncertainty Quote box quoted true bgcolor FFFFF0 salign center quote There are some ... do not have full information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it. source Dennis Lindley , Understanding Uncertainty 2006 width 33 align right For example, if you do not know whether ... more details
For a much more detailed treatment, see Experimental uncertainty analysis Uncertainty analysis investigates the uncertainty of variables that are used in decision making problems in which observations and models represent the knowledge base. In other words, uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables. In physical experiment s uncertainty analysis , or experimental uncertainty assessment , deals with assessing the uncertainty in a measurement . An experiment designed to determine an effect, demonstrate a law, or estimate the numerical value of a physical variable will be affected by errors due to instrumentation, methodology, presence of confounding effects and so on. Experimental uncertainty estimates are needed to assess the confidence in the results. ref http www.engineering.uiowa.edu cfd pdfs References uncert.pdf Summary of experimental uncertainty assessment methodology with example ref A related field is Design of experiments . Likewise in numerical experiments and Mathematical model modelling uncertainty analysis draws upon a number of techniques for determining the reliability of model predictions, accounting for various sources of uncertainty in model input and design. ref http www.floodrisknet.org.uk methods MethodologiesForUncertaintyAnalysis Methodologies for uncertainty analysis ref A related field is sensitivity analysis . A calibrated parameter does not necessarily represents reality, as reality is much more complex. Any prediction has its own complexities of reality .... ref http www.pesthomepage.org Uncertainty Analysis.php ref See also Interval finite element method ... , Uncertainty in Industrial Practice A Guide to Quantitative Uncertainty Management , Wiley & Sons ... based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliability Engineering and System ... Experiments Springer Verlag, 2003. Category Uncertainty of numbers Category Measurement ... more details
In economics , Knightian uncertainty is risk that is immeasurable, not possible to calculate. Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight 1885&ndash 1972 , who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit ref Knight, F.H. 1921 http www.archive.org details riskuncertaintyp00knigrich Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit . Boston, MA Hart, Schaffner & Marx Houghton Mifflin Company ref Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that risk means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character and there are far reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating.... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or risk proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. Related concepts Common cause and special cause see Common cause and special cause The difference between predictable variation and unpredictable variation is one of the fundamental issues in the philosophy of probability , and different probability interpretations treat predictable and unpredictable variation differently. The distinction and debate has a long history, referred to as and discussed at common cause and special cause . Ellsberg paradox see Ellsberg paradox The Ellsberg paradox is based on the difference between these two types of risk, and the problems it poses for utility theory one is faced with an urn that contains 30 red balls and 60 balls that are either all yellow or all black, and one then draws a ball from the urn. This poses both uncertainty whether the non red balls are all yellow or all black and probability whether the ball is red or non red, which is vs. . Expressed preferences in choices ... more details
Generalize date October 2009 In project management , the Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of uncertainty during a project. At the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty. As more research and development is done, more information is learned about the project, and the uncertainty ... maintenance group. The term Cone of Uncertainty is used in software development where the technical .... Well before any significant investments are made, the uncertainty is reduced to a level where the risk can be carried comfortably. In this kind of environment the uncertainty level decreases ... volatile and there is an external pressure to increase the uncertainty level over time. The project must actively and continuously work to reduce the uncertainty level. The Cone of Uncertainty is narrowed ... on the Cone of Uncertainty stated that in the beginning of the project life cycle i.e. before gathering of requirements estimates have in general an uncertainty of factor 4 on both the high side and the low ... estimates. This uncertainty tends to decrease over the course of a project, although that decrease is not guaranteed McConnell 2006, p. 38 . Applications of the Cone of Uncertainty One way to account for the Cone of Uncertainty in the project estimate is to first determine a most likely ... of uncertainty at that time . This can be done with formulas applied to spreadsheets, or by using ... ranged estimate and will then create a schedule that will include this level of uncertainty. Image ... to a tropical storm The Cone of Uncertainty is also used extensively as a graphic in hurricane forecasting ... is essentially the opposite of the usage in software development. In software development, the uncertainty surrounds the current state of the project, and in the future the uncertainty decreases, whereas ... hurricanes cone of uncertainty ref Over the past decade, storms have traveled within their projected ... more details
Multiple issues confusing May 2009 notability May 2009 unreferenced May 2009 orphan December 2010 Objective Uncertainty is usually used when there is a dispute over claims, specifically with respect to the promise of surrender of an invalid claim or promise of forbearance to assert an invalid claim as constituting legal detriment to the claimant, and if bargained for, as constituting consideration for a legally Contract binding agreement . Under modern Contract Law, either good faith or objective uncertainty as to the validity of the claim is sufficient for the purpose of constituting. In simple English, it means, either the claimant has to assert the claim in good faith or a reasonable person could believe that the claim is well founded. So, an objective uncertainty as to the validity of a claim means that a reasonable person could believe that the claim is well founded. Category Contract law ... more details
In macroeconomics , multiplier uncertainty is lack of perfect knowledge of the Multiplier economics multiplier effect of a particular policy action, such as a monetary or fiscal policy change, upon the intended ... uncertainty may surround the magnitude of effect of a change in the monetary base or its growth ... rate , or GDP. There are several policy implications of multiplier uncertainty 1 If the multiplier uncertainty is correlation uncorrelated with additive uncertainty, its presence causes greater cautiousness ... uncertainty, it is no longer redundant to have more policy tools than there are targeted economic ... policy is not equivalent to a policy of ignoring uncertainty. Effect of multiplier uncertainty on the optimal ... year 1967 title Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy journal American Economic Review ... expected value E u in the absence of any policy action. If there were no uncertainty about the policy ... that, to the extent that there is multiplier uncertainty the extent to which math sigma 2 a 0 math , the magnitude of the optimal policy action is diminished. Thus the basic effect of multiplier uncertainty ... last Mitchell first Douglas W. year 1990 title The efficient policy frontier under parameter uncertainty ... uncertainty, it is not superfluous to have more policy tools than targets with multiplier uncertainty ... policy tools having multiplier uncertainty, and on the other hand, Modern portfolio theory portfolio optimization involving multiple investment choices having rate of return uncertainty. ref name ... control context with multiplier uncertainty, ref cite book last Chow first Gregory P. year 1976 ... equivalence principle does not apply while in the absence of multiplier uncertainty that is, with only additive uncertainty the optimal policy with a quadratic loss function coincides with what would be decided if the uncertainty were ignored, this no longer holds in the presence of multiplier uncertainty. References reflist Category Economics Category Macroeconomics ... more details
In mathematics, the uncertainty exponent is a method of measuring the fractal dimension of a basin boundary . In a chaotic scattering system, the invariant mathematics Invariant set invariant set of the system is usually not directly accessible because it is non attracting and typically of measure mathematics measure zero. Therefore, the only way to infer the presence of members and to measure the properties of the invariant set is through the basin of attraction basins of attraction . Note that in a scattering system, basins of attraction are not limit cycles therefore do not constitute members of the invariant set. Suppose we start with a random trajectory and perturb it by a small amount, math epsilon math , in a random direction. If the new trajectory ends up in a different basin from the old one, then it is called epsilon uncertain . If we take a large number of such trajectories, then the fraction of them that are epsilon uncertain is the uncertainty fraction , math f epsilon math , and we expect it to scale exponentially with math varepsilon math math f varepsilon sim varepsilon gamma , math Thus the uncertainty exponent, math gamma math , is defined as follows math gamma lim varepsilon to 0 frac ln f varepsilon ln varepsilon math The uncertainty exponent can be shown to approximate the box counting dimension as follows math D 0 N gamma , math where N is the embedding dimension. Please refer to the article on chaotic mixing for an example of numerical computation of the uncertainty dimension compared with that of a box counting dimension. References C. Grebogi, S. W. McDonald, E. Ott and J. A. Yorke, Final state sensitivity An obstruction to predictability , Phys. Letters 99A 415 418 1983 . Cite book author Edward Ott title Chaos in Dynamical Systems publisher Cambridge University Press year 1993 Category Chaos theory Category Fractals ... more details
In metrology , measurement uncertainty is a non negative parameter characterizing the Statistical dispersion dispersion of the values attributed to a measured quantity. The uncertainty has a probabilistic basis and reflects incomplete knowledge of the quantity. All measurements are subject to uncertainty and a measured value is only complete if it is accompanied by a statement of the associated uncertainty. Fractional uncertainty is the measurement uncertainty divided by the measured value. Codex has guidelines on Measurement Uncertainty, CAC GL 54 2004. Background The purpose of measurement is to provide ... Good Practice Guide No. 11. A Beginner s Guide to Uncertainty of Measurement. Tech. rep., National Physical ... to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement GUM ref name GUM http www.bipm.org utils common documents ... of uncertainty in measurement, Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology. ref is a document published by the Measurement uncertainty Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology JCGM that establishes general rules for evaluating and expressing uncertainty in measurement. ref Kent J. Gregory, Giovani Bibbo ... of a measurement as an estimate of the measurand along with an associated measurement uncertainty. One ... , and puts it on a probabilistic basis through the concept of measurement uncertainty. Another ... is known, but only how well it is believed to be known. Measurement uncertainty can therefore .... This uncertainty reflects the incomplete knowledge of the measurand. The notion of belief is an important ... term, the relevant quantity should be corrected by this estimate. There will be an uncertainty ... of measurement data Supplement 1 to the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement ..., consider a so called standard uncertainty , given the symbol math u x i math , defined as the standard deviation ref name JCGM 101 of the input quantity math X i math . This standard uncertainty is said ... uncertainty associated with this estimate. Often an interval containing math Y math with a specified ... more details
Infobox film name Uncertainty image Uncertainty film poster .jpg director Scott McGehee br David Siegel producer Becky Glupczynski br Scott McGehee br David Siegel writer Scott McGehee br David Siegel starring Lynn Collins br Joseph Gordon Levitt br Assumpta Serna br Olivia Thirlby distributor IFC Films , Myriad pictures Myriad Pictures International released start date 2008 9 8 small Toronto International Film Festival TIFF br dts 2009 11 13 runtime 105 minutes U.S. theatrical release 105 17 country United States language English music budget Uncertainty is a 2008 independent film indie drama film drama and thriller film , written, produced, and directed by American independent filmmakers Scott McGehee and David Siegel , and starring Lynn Collins and Joseph Gordon Levitt . It was first released at the Toronto International Film Festival 2008 2008 Toronto International Film Festival . Distribution rights were acquired by IFC Films and received limited release on November 13, 2009. It was simultaneously made available to cable viewers via Video on demand Video On Demand . The film was shot in HD on the Arriflex D 20 . Plot Bobby Joseph Gordon Levitt and Kate Lynn Collins are a young ... siegel and scott mcgehee uncertainty title DAVID SIEGEL AND SCOTT MCGEHEE, UNCERTAINTY author Brandon ... seems to be based on the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics, which can be illustrated ... Uncertainty has an approval rating of 54 on Rotten Tomatoes , from 24 reviews counted. ref cite web url http www.rottentomatoes.com m uncertainty title Rotten Tomatoes accessdate 2010 09 08 ref References Reflist External links http www.ifcfilms.com films uncertainty Official IFC Films site IMDb title 1086216 title Uncertainty http www.uncertaintyfilm.com Production blog by filmmakers http www.filmmakermagazine.com news 2009 11 david siegel and scott mcgehee uncertainty Article from Filmmaker ... films Category 2000s drama films indie film stub es Uncertainty fr Uncertainty ... more details
Multiple issues copy edit March 2012 globalize March 2012 refimprove March 2012 orphan March 2012 Tax uncertainty is an economic risk encountered when the scale and type of tax es cannot be accurately predicted. Tax uncertainty can effect decision making for families as well as business organizations. ref cite news title Tax cut impasse has many in limbo newspaper USA Today page B1 date March 23, 2012 last Block first Sandra ref Tax uncertainty slows the rate of economic growth in an economy. ref cite web url http economistsview.typepad.com economistsview 2011 09 its not regulatory and tax uncertainty.html title Economist s View It s Not Regulatory and Tax Uncertainty publisher Economistsview.typepad.com date September 3, 2011 accessdate March 28, 2012 ref ref name World Bank cite book last1 Easterly first1 William last2 King first2 Robert last3 Levine first3 Ross last4 Rebelo first4 Sergio title How do National Policies Affect Long Run Growth? year 1991 publisher Country Economics Department, The World Bank pages 21 url http books.google.com books?id pJejwYXmT5gC&pg PA22&dq 22tax uncertainty 22&hl en&sa X&ei vclwT 73M WjiALw8JW3DA&ved 0CDoQ6AEwAQ v onepage&q 22tax 20uncertainty 22&f false ref Current tax uncertainty in the United States There are several temporary tax measures adopted during the George W. Bush era which will expire at the end of 2012. The uncertainty of future tax implications is paralyzing many businesses, large and small, according to tax preparer s and tax planners planners . The measures affect both income tax and estate tax . Increased tax rates Tax rates will rise to 15 39.6 from 10 35 . The Alternative Minimum Tax The AMT which was meant to affect only high income individuals has not been indexed to inflation and will ensnare more and more people. It is estimated that in 2012 it will affect more than to 10 of the united states population 31 million taxpayers . Home owners, seniors and parents of college students Home owner s, senior s and pa ... more details
The corridor of uncertainty is a phrase originating from the sport of cricket . It describes an area where a cricket ball can pitch during a Delivery cricket delivery a narrow line on and just outside a batsman s off stump. The name is derived from the opinion that this is the area in which a batsman struggles most to determine whether to play forward or back, or whether to leave the delivery. The first recorded use of the phrase is commonly credited to former Yorkshire County Cricket Club Yorkshire and English cricket team England batsman , now sports commentator commentator , Geoffrey Boycott whilst commentating on England s 1990 tour of the West Indies ref Citation last Greenslade first Nick author link Nick Greenslade title First and last Geoffrey Boycott newspaper The Observer year 2004 date July 4, 2004 url http observer.guardian.co.uk osm story 0,,1250944,00.html ref . There are other earlier claims to coinage, however, including a televised interview with Merv Hughes who says Allan Border instructed him to bowl in the corridor of uncertainty at one point in the 1988 1989 West Indies cricket team West Indies tour of Australia ref http www.youtube.com watch?v D21anTJi8ck The relevant comment is at 1.24 ref . The phrase has also been used in other sports commentary. In football soccer football it is commonly used to describe a cross football cross or pass which is delivered into the area in front of the Goalkeeper association football goalkeeper and behind the last line of Defense sport defence . The uncertainty in this case comes from the decision which both the last defender and the Goalkeeper association football goalkeeper must make whether to defend the ball, or leave it to the other player. Corridor of uncertainty is also the name, or part of the name, of several online cricket forums and at least two fanzine type cricket publications. See also Line and length References Reflist Category Cricket terminology Category Association football terminology ... more details
Uncertainty quantification UQ is the science of quantitative characterization and reduction of Uncertainty uncertainties in applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known. An example would be to predict the acceleration of a human body in a head on crash with another car even if we exactly knew the speed, small differences in the manufacturing of individual cars, how tightly every bolt has been tightened, etc., will lead to different results that can only be predicted in a statistical sense. Many problems in the natural sciences and engineering are also rife with sources of uncertainty. computer model Computer simulation modeling is the most commonly used approach to study problems in uncertainty quantification UQ . Reasons for uncertainties Uncertainty can enter numerical or mathematical models in various contexts. For example The model structure, i.e., how accurately a mathematical model describes the true system for a real life situation, may only be known approximately. Models are almost always only approximations to reality. For example, the Maxwell equations describe electromagnetic fields very well yet, it is known that quantum electrodynamics is the correct description if field strengths become large. The numerical approximation, i.e., how appropriately a numerical method is used in approximating the operation of the system. Most models are too complicated to solve exactly. For example the finite element method may be used to approximate the solution of a partial differential equation , but this introduces an error the difference between the exact and the numerical solution . Input and or model ... life applications, both kinds of uncertainties are often present. Uncertainty quantification intends to work toward reducing type 2 uncertainties to type 1. The quantification for the type 1 uncertainty ... date June 2008 Category Applied mathematics Category Operations research Category Uncertainty ... more details
Other uses Quantum mechanics Image Uncertainty principle.gif thumb The wave function of an initially very localized particle In quantum mechanics , the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states a fundamental ... 11, 1954 ref Published by Werner Heisenberg in 1927, the uncertainty principle was a monumental ... V. Balakrishnan, Lecture 1 Introduction to Quantum Physics Heisenberg s uncertainty principle, National Programme of Technology Enhanced Learning ref The reason for the uncertainty principle arises .... ref Werner Heisenberg, The Physical Principles of the Quantum Theory , p. 20 ref The uncertainty ... h . Mathematically, the uncertainty relation between position and momentum arises because the expressions ... of quantum mechanics , any non commutator commuting operators are subject to similar uncertainty ... the Uncertainty Principle at Niels Bohr s institute in Copenhagen, while working on the mathematical ... Society online exhibit on the Uncertainty Principle. ref In 1925, following pioneering work with Hendrik ... by how much math X,P X P P X i hbar math see Uncertainty Principle Derivations derivations and this result ... s institute, Heisenberg realized that the non commutativity implies the uncertainty principle ... showed that the commutation relation implies an uncertainty, or in Bohr s language a complementarity ..., the wider the diffracted wave and the greater the uncertainty in momentum afterward. The laws of diffraction ... to the word Unsicherheit uncertainty . However, when the English language version of Heisenberg s textbook, The Physical Principles of the Quantum Theory , was published in 1930, the translation uncertainty ... Citation first David last Cassidy year 2009 title Beyond Uncertainty Heisenberg, Quantum Physics, and the Bomb ... optics shows that the electron position can be resolved only up to an uncertainty x that depends ... the intrinsic impossibility of violating the uncertainty principle is by using an imaginary ... that no matter what photon wavelength and aperture size are used, the product of the uncertainty ... more details
distinguish Uncertainty principle multiple issues onesource November 2009 jargon December 2009 howto December 2009 citationstyle December 2009 misleading date December 2009 Uncertainty theory is a branch ... measure axioms. Clarify date December 2009 It was founded by Baoding Liu ref Baoding Liu, Uncertainty ..., Uncertainty Theory, 3rd ed., http orsc.edu.cn liu ut.pdf. ref Mathematical measures of the likelihood ..., as well as uncertainty. Five axioms Axiom 1. Normality Axiom math mathcal M Gamma 1 text ... Measure Axiom Let math Gamma k, mathcal L k, mathcal M k math be uncertainty spaces for math k 1,2 ... n operatorname min mathcal M i Lambda i math . Principle. Maximum Uncertainty Principle For any event ... function from an uncertainty space math Gamma,L,M math to the set mathematics set of real ... math is an event. Uncertainty distribution Uncertainty distribution is inducted to describe uncertain variables. Definition The uncertainty distribution math Phi x R rightarrow 0,1 math of an uncertain ... Condition for Uncertainty Distribution A function math Phi x R rightarrow 0,1 math is an uncertain ... uncertain variables. Theorem 3 Let math Phi i math be uncertainty distributions of independent uncertain variables math xi i, quad i 1,2, ldots,m math respectively, and math Phi math the joint uncertainty ... of the two integrals is finite. Theorem 1 Let math xi math be an uncertain variable with uncertainty ... be an uncertain variable with regular uncertainty distribution math Phi math . If the expected value ... value to math xi math . Theorem 1 Let math xi math be an uncertain variable with regular uncertainty ... alpha math . Entropy Definition Let math xi math be an uncertain variable with uncertainty distribution ... with regular uncertainty distribution math Phi math . Then math H xi int 0 1 Phi 1 alpha mbox ... a E xi b E eta math . Theorem 3 Let math xi math be an uncertain variable whose uncertainty distribution ... 1 Suppose that math xi, xi 1, xi 2, ldots math are uncertain variables defined on the uncertainty space ... more details
Infobox television show name The Age of Uncertainty image File TheAgeOfUncertainty.jpg 200px caption format runtime approx. 60 minutes per episode creator John Kenneth Galbraith starring John Kenneth Galbraith country UK , US , CAN network BBC , CBS , KCET , OECA first aired 1977 last aired 1977 num episodes 15 The Age of Uncertainty is a 1977 book and television series, co produced by the BBC , Canadian Broadcasting Corporation CBC , KCET and OECA , and written and presented by Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith . Background Galbraith fully acknowledged the successes of the market system in economics but associated it with instability, inefficiency and social inequity. He advocated government policies and interventions to remedy these perceived faults. ref Markets or Governments Choosing between imperfect alternatives , Charles Wolf, p. 2, MIT Press, 1993, ISBN 0262731045 ref In his book Economics and the Public Purpose 1973 he proposed the extension of the planning system used in the industrial core of the economy to the wider market economy. He argued for a new socialism, with more steeply progressive taxes, public housing, medical care and transportation, public support of the arts and the conversion of some corporations and military contractors into public corporations. ref John Kenneth Galbraith, Iconoclastic Economist and Diplomat, Dies at 97 , New York Times, 1 May 2006, retrieved 19 June 2009 http query.nytimes.com gst fullpage.html?res 9C01E5DE113FF932A35756C0A9609C8B63 ... in The Age of Uncertainty , Hoover Press, 1999, ISBN 0817996222 ref In the midst of the Watergate ... on the title Age of Uncertainty to reflect the sharp contrast between the great certainty in 19th ... other works Economics and the Public Purse and Money , The Age of Uncertainty reinforced Galbraith ... Publishing Group, 2005, ISBN 1843711311 ref References The Age of Uncertainty , John Kenneth Galbraith, BBC Andre Deutsch, 1977, ISBN 0 563 128879 Notes references DEFAULTSORT Age of Uncertainty, The Category ... more details
In statistics , the uncertainty coefficient , also called entropy coefficient or Theil s U , is a measure of nominal Association statistics association . It was first introduced by Henri Theil and is based on the concept of information entropy . Suppose we have samples of two normally discrete random variables, i and j . By constructing the joint distribution, P i , j , from which we can calculate the conditional distributions, P i j P i , j P j and P j i P i , j P i , and calculating the various entropies, we can determine the degree of association between the two variables. The entropy of a single distribution is given as ref name Shannon Weaver1963 cite book author1 Claude E. Shannon author2 Warren Weaver year 1963 title The Mathematical Theory of Communication publisher University of Illinois Press ref math H i sum i P i log P i , math while the conditional entropy is given as ref name Shannon Weaver1963 math H i j sum i, j P i, j log P i j . math The uncertainty coefficient is defined as ref name Press etal1992 cite book title Numerical Recipes in C the Art of Scientific Computing author1 William H. Press author2 Brian P. Flannery author3 Saul A. Teukolsky author4 William T. Vetterling year 1992 publisher Cambridge University Press edition 2nd pn date January 2012 ref math U i j frac H i H i j H i , math and tells us given j , what fraction of the bits of i can we predict? In this case we can think of i as containing the true values. The measure can be inverted to return the reverse question and a symmetrical measure thus defined as a weighted average between the two ref name Press etal1992 math begin align U i, j & frac H i U i j H j U j i H i H j 8pt & 2 left frac H i H j H i, j H i H j right . end align math The uncertainty ... Coefficient, Tschuprow s T, Cramer s V, Lambda, Uncertainty Coefficient Course notes, 2008 by G. David Garson, NCSU http libagf.sourceforge.net libagf Includes software for calculating uncertainty coefficients ... more details
In statistics , propagation of uncertainty or propagation of error is the effect of Variable mathematics variables uncertainty uncertainties or Errors and residuals in statistics errors on the uncertainty of a function mathematics function based on them. When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have Observational error uncertainties due to measurement limitations e.g., instrument Accuracy and precision precision which propagate to the combination of variables in the function. The uncertainty is usually defined by the absolute error x . Uncertainties can also be defined by the relative error x x , which is usually written as a percentage. Most commonly the error on a quantity, x , is given as the standard deviation , . Standard deviation is the positive square root of variance , sup 2 sup . The value of a quantity and its error are often expressed as nowrap ... calculation Inverse tangent function We can calculate the uncertainty propagation for the inverse ... x , math where math sigma x math is the absolute uncertainty on our measurement of math x math ... x frac 1 1 x 2 . math Therefore, our propagated uncertainty is math sigma f frac sigma x 1 x 2 , math where math sigma f math is the absolute propagated uncertainty. Example application Resistance measurement ... V , the uncertainty in the computed quantity, R is math Delta R sqrt left Delta V right 2 left frac 1 I right 2 left Delta I right 2 left frac V I 2 right 2 . math See also Experimental uncertainty ... Automatic differentiation List of uncertainty propagation software Interval finite element Notes reflist refs ref name fornasini citation first1 Paolo last1 Fornasini title The uncertainty in physical ... physics uncertainty.htm A detailed discussion of measurements and the propagation of uncertainty .... http www.bipm.org en publications guides gum.html GUM , Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement ... Statistical approximations Category Uncertainty of numbers de Fehlerfortpflanzung es Propagaci n ... more details
In quantum mechanics , information theory , and Fourier analysis , the Hirschman uncertainty is defined as the sum of the temporal and spectral Shannon entropy Shannon entropies . It turns out that Heisenberg s uncertainty principle can be expressed as a lower bound on the sum of these entropies. This is stronger than the usual statement of the uncertainty principle in terms of the product of standard deviations. In 1957, ref name Hirschman I.I. Hirschman, Jr., A note on entropy. American Journal of Mathematics 1957 pp. 152 156 ref Hirschman considered a function f and its Fourier transform g such that math g y approx int infty infty exp 2 pi ixy f x , dx, qquad f x approx int infty infty exp 2 pi ixy g y , dy, math where the math approx math indicates convergence in math L 2 math , and normalized so that by Plancherel theorem Plancherel s theorem math int infty infty f x 2 , dx int infty infty g y 2 ,dy 1. math He showed that for any such functions the sum of the Shannon entropies is non negative math H f 2 H g 2 int infty infty f x 2 log f x 2 , dx int infty infty g y 2 log g y 2 ,dy ge 0. math A tighter bound, math H f 2 H g 2 ge log frac e 2, math was conjectured by Hirschman ref ... Uncertainty Principle for a Locally Compact Abelian Group journal Journal of Functional Analysis ... entropic uncertainty function is distinctly different than the quantum Von Neumann entropy represented .... Formulation of the uncertainty relations in terms of the Renyi entropies. http arxiv.org abs quant ..., an expression of the uncertainty principal in terms of the R nyi entropy can be derived. ref ... squares of both of these are Gaussian, too. This can be used to derive the variance uncertainty ... distribution. See also Inequalities in information theory Uncertainty principle Riesz Thorin ... Gaussian asymptotic minimizers in entropic uncertainty principles. http arxiv.org abs math 0605510v1 arXiv math 0605510v1 DEFAULTSORT Hirschman Uncertainty Category Quantum mechanical entropy Category ... more details
wiktionary uncertainty principle The uncertainty principle is a fundamental concept in quantum physics. Uncertainty Principle may also refer to The Uncertainty Principle film The Uncertainty Principle film , a 2002 Portuguese drama Uncertainty Principle Numb3rs Uncertainty Principle Numb3rs , an episode of the TV series Numb3rs The Uncertainty Principle The Spectacular Spider Man The Uncertainty Principle The Spectacular Spider Man , an episode of the TV series The Spectacular Spider Man The Uncertainty Principle , an Holby City series 11 ep472 episode of the TV series Holby City The Uncertainty Principle , a novel by Dmitri Bilenkin Principio de incertidumbre Uncertainty principle , a novel by Gregorio Morales The French downtempo band Telepopmusik has a song titled L Incertitude D Heisenberg on their album Genetic World disambig ... more details
In order to quantify the uncertainty in a Perturbation astronomy perturbed orbital solution for a minor planet in a concise fashion, the Minor Planet Center MPC has introduced the U parameter. ref name MPC Uncertainty This is an integer in the range 0 to 9, where 0 indicates a very small uncertainty and 9 an extremely large uncertainty. ref name MPC Uncertainty In practice, U is rarely larger than 6. ref name MPC Uncertainty The JPL Small Body Database Browser lists the MPC Uncertainty Parameter U as the condition code . ref name conditioncode This uncertainty is related to several parameters used in the orbit determination process including the number of observations measurements , the time spanned by those observations data arc , the quality of the observations e.g. Radar astronomy radar vs optical , and the geometry of the observations. Of these parameters, the time spanned by the observations generally has the greatest effect on the orbital uncertainty. ref name NASA uncertainty Objects such as mpl 1995 SN 55 with a condition code Uncertainty Parameter U of E are considered Lost asteroid lost . mpl 2004 BX 159 with a very short observation of 3 days and an Uncertainty Parameter of 9 has a large uncertainty region that creates a cumulative probability of impact of approximately 1 in 2.1 billion. ref name summary BX159 Potentially hazardous object mpl 2011 AG 5 has an Uncertainty Parameter of 3, ref name jpldata AG5 which causes the uncertainty region of the asteroid to potentially overlap the Earths position in 2040. ref name summary AG5 References reflist refs ref name MPC Uncertainty cite web title Uncertainty Parameter U publisher Minor Planet Center url http www.minorplanetcenter.org iau info UValue.html accessdate 2011 11 15 ref ref name conditioncode cite web title Definition Description for SBDB Parameter Field condition code publisher JPL Solar System Dynamics ... uncertainty cite web date 31 Aug 2005 title Near Earth Objects Close Apporach Uncertainties publisher ... more details
Uncertainty reduction theory originated from Charles Berger and Richard Calabrese in 1975. The goal for this theory was to predict and explain how communication is used to reduce the uncertainty among ... that individuals will experience uncertainty on a regular basis and that the experience of uncertainty ... way to reduce uncertainty. Berger purposed that there are three possible ways that influence whether people have the motivation needed to reduce their uncertainty. First, anticipation of future interaction with someone tendencies will show you to be more motivated to reduce uncertainty about them if you are likely to see again. Therefore, you are more likely to use uncertainty reduction behaviors ... their uncertainty about the individual. Berger and Calabrese stated that the uncertainties are associated ... and joy. Cooperate with each other concepts so that participants can reduce some of their uncertainty ... assumptions 1. People are experiencing the uncertainty in the setting of interpersonal communication. 2. Uncertainty is an unpleasant situation, cognitively stressful. 3. When strangers meet, their primary concern is to reduce uncertainty or improve their predictability. 4. Interpersonal communication ... is the main tool for reducing uncertainty. 6. The quantity and nature of the information shared by the people ... the legal way. Uncertainty reduction is central to all social relations. Likewise, Berger noted that much ... a range of strategies to manage uncertainty. Three primary strategies explain most uncertainty ... to uncertainty reduction involves gathering information from a third party. Rather than playing ... information as possible. Uncertainty exists in new and developing relationships as well as in long term, ongoing relationships. Even in the face of positive change, uncertainty is inevitable. All relationships are characterized by change and growth both of which promote the rise of uncertainty. Some researchers believe that a little bit of uncertainty is actually necessary for maintaining a healthy ... more details
One source date February 2011 In hydrology , Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation GLUE is a statistical method for quantifying the uncertainty of model predictions. The method has been introduced by Beven and Binley 1992 . The basic idea of GLUE is that given our inability to represent exactly in a mathematical model how nature works, there will always be several different models that mimic equally well an observed natural process such as discharge hydrology river discharge . Such equally acceptable or behavioral models are therefore called equifinality equifinal . The methodology deals with models whose results are expressed as probability distribution s of possible outcomes, often in the form of Monte Carlo simulation s, and the problem can be viewed as assessing, and comparing between models, how good these representations of uncetainty are. There is an implicit understanding that the models being used are approximations to what might be obtained from a thorough Bayesian analysis of the problem if a fully adequate model of real world hydrological processes were available. See also Swat CUP No footnotes date February 2011 References Beven, K.J. and Binley, A.M., 1992. The future of distributed models model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrological Processes , 6, p.279 298. Beven, K.J. and Freer, J., 2001a. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems, Journal of Hydrology , 249, 11 29. Beven, K.J., 2006 A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 320, p.18 36 Beven, K.J., 2007 http www.hydrol earth syst sci.net 11 460 2007 hess 11 460 2007.pdf Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process. Hydrology ... uncertainty assessment Incoherence of the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology , 330 1 2 , p ... site with list of GLUE papers. Category Hydrology Category Information, knowledge, and uncertainty ... more details
based on an analysis that ignores uncertainty . ref cite book author Morgan, M. Granger and Henrion, Max chapter Chap. 12 title Uncertainty A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative ... treatment of uncertainty in policy analysis author Henrion, M. year 1982 publisher Carnegie Mellon University ref Background Decisions must be made every day in the ubiquitous presence of uncertainty. For most day to day decisions, various heuristics are used to act reasonably in the presence of uncertainty ..., a very common practice is to ignore uncertainty. Decisions are reached through quantitative ... are then made on computed point estimates . In many cases, however, ignoring uncertainty can lead ... Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty publisher Wiley location New York year 2009 isbn 0 471 38197 7 url http www.flawofaverages.com ref An alternative to ignoring uncertainty in quantiative decision models is to explicitly encode uncertainty as part of the model. Due to the adoption of powerful software tools such as Analytica that allows representations of uncertainty to be explicitly ... reflects the degree of Bayesian probability subjective uncertainty or lack of knowledge ... the uncertainty to result variables, so that a decision maker obtains an explicit picture of the impact that uncertainty has on his decisions, and in many cases can make a much better decision as a result. When comparing the two approaches ignoring uncertainty versus modeling uncertainty explicitly ... a highly useful measure of sensitivity to uncertainty, the EVPI does not directly capture the actual improvement in decisions obtained from explicitly representing and reasoning about uncertainty. For this, Max Henrion, in his Ph.D. thesis, introduced the expected value of including uncertainty EVIU ... on x end array math When not including uncertainty, you find the optimal decision using only math E x math , the expected value of the uncertain quantity. Hence, the decision ignoring uncertainty is given ... more details
Infobox film name The Uncertainty Principle image caption director Manoel de Oliveira producer Paulo Branco writer Agustina Bessa Lu s br Manoel de Oliveira starring Leonor Baldaque music cinematography Renato Berta editing Manoel de Oliveira br Catherine Krassovsky distributor released film date 2002 5 17 df yes runtime 133 minutes country Film Portugal language Portuguese budget The Uncertainty Principle lang pt O Princ pio da Incerteza is a 2002 Portuguese drama film directed by Manoel de Oliveira . It was entered into the 2002 Cannes Film Festival . ref name festival cannes.com cite web url http www.festival cannes.com en archives ficheFilm id 3102262 year 2002.html title Festival de Cannes The Uncertainty Principle accessdate 2009 10 25 work festival cannes.com ref Cast Leonor Baldaque Camila Leonor Silveira Vanessa Isabel Ruth Celsa Ricardo Tr pa Jose Feliciano Ivo Canelas Antonio Clara Lu s Miguel Cintra Daniel Roper Jos Manuel Mendes Torcato Roper Carmen Santos Joana Cec lia Guimar es Rute J lia Buisel Aunt Tofi ngela Marques Adora o Diogo D ria Policeman Antonio Fonseca Policeman Duarte de Almeida Mr. Ferreira P. Jo o Marques Priest Ant nio Costa actor Ant nio Costa Tiago David Cardoso Overman References reflist External links IMDb title id 0303162 title The Uncertainty Principle Manoel de Oliveira DEFAULTSORT Uncertainty Principle Category 2002 films Category Portuguese films Category Portuguese language films Category 2000s drama films Category Films directed by Manoel de Oliveira Portugal film stub fr Le Principe de l incertitude it Il principio dell incertezza pt O Princ pio da Incerteza filme ... more details
external links date January 2012 List of uncertainty propagation software used for performing propagation of uncertaintyuncertainty propagation calculations Software http www.udue.de DSI Dempster Shafer with Intervals DSI Toolbox is a MATLAB toolbox for verified computing under Dempster Shafer theory . It provides aggregation rules, fast non monotonic function propagation, plots of basic probability assignments, verified Fault tree analysis , and much more. http www.futureskill.com index.php?option com content&view article&id 116&Itemid 111 EasyGraph is a graphing package that supports error propagation directly into the error bars. Epc error propagating calculator Epc is an open source script ... way to analyze an uncertainty problem for single and multiple results. http mst.irl.cri.nz GUM Tree is a design pattern for propagating measurement uncertainty. There is an implementation in R and add ... Windows command line tool with full support for uncertainty calculations involving real and complex ... uses the standard methods for propagation. MUSE Measurement Uncertainty Simulation and Evaluation MUSE Measurement Uncertainty Simulation and Evaluation using the monte carlo method. http packages.python.org ... http www.colby.edu chemistry PChem scripts error.html Colby College Uncertainty Calculator T. W ... Uncertainty Research Group, ETH Z rich free Free for non commercial use C yes yes no Standalone ... Risk Calc Scott Ferson proprietary C yes yes Probabilistic and interval uncertainty. Also handles uncertainty about correlations. http web.mst.edu gbert JAVA uncertainty.HTML S&T Missouri Uncertainty ... control.cgi 2007 070939.pdf Experimental Uncertainty Estimation and Statistics for Data Having Interval Uncertainty . Sandia National Laboratories Report SAND2007 0939. External links http andrzej.pownuk.com interval web applications.htm Interval web applications propagation of the interval uncertainty DEFAULTSORT Uncertainty Propagation Software Category Uncertainty propagation software Category ... more details
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